CodeForPhilly / CodeForPhilly/chime
["model"] Fit all free parameters against longer hospital time series
- Lenguaje dominante
- Python
- Estrellas
- 210
- Forks
- 153
- Métricas de merge de PR
- Sin PR fusionados en 30 d
Descripción
### Summary
Among the inputs to the model, parameters can be broken up by which ones should be firm details of the population and hospital, or reliable local calculations, and which ones are unknowns that observations should fit
Firm
- Regional population
- Market share
- ICU and Ventilator usage, as a fraction of hospitalized cases
- Lengths of stay
Unknown
- % Infections requiring hospitalization
- Spread parameter (as initial beta, doubling time, whatever)
- latency from infection to hospital presentation (#340 for implementation of this variable)
- Effect of social distancing measures (as contact reduction rate, or adjusted beta, whatever)
Given a week or two worth of actual hospital admissions, it should be possible to automatically estimate values for all of these parameters.
### Additional details
One potential confounding factor would be if the standard for hospitalization changes over time, to reflect increasing healthcare system burden and narrowed focus on the most critical cases.
Of the unknowns, latency should be the most general across regions and populations, but may still vary with distribution of demographics, comorbidities, etc, so it seems worth treating it as local.
### Suggested fix
Take as many days of hospital admission data as available as input, and automatically determine all possible parameters.
Guía de contribución
Línea de trabajo
No se nombran archivos, pruebas ni puntos de entrada. Empieza por localizar las entradas existentes de parámetros del modelo y la ruta de datos de admisiones hospitalarias; después, revisa el issue #340 para consultar la variable de latencia; se considera terminado cuando se ajuste cada incógnita enumerada usando todos los días de admisión disponibles, teniendo en cuenta los posibles cambios en los estándares de hospitalización.
Escrito por el modelo de indexación a partir del texto del issue.
Evaluación
- Stack tecnológico
- python
- Área
- data, machine-learning
- Tipo de issue
- Nueva funcionalidad
- Dificultad
- 5/5
- Tiempo estimado
- Más de una semana
- Estado de actividad
- Estancado
- Claridad
- Necesita aclaración
- Aptitud para principiantes
- 20/100