altf4 / altf4/Omniscience

Derive "worst-case scenario" results from standings?

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描述

Can we, given the last round standings, derive a "worst case scenario" set of results?

It would be something like...
- All of our previous opponents lose (making our OMW and OGW percents go down maximally)
- We lose the maximum amount of games for the simulated result. (0-2 losses and 2-1 wins)
- For each match capable of tying / exceeding our match score, the player with the best breakers wins.
- For each match capable of exceeding our match score for both players with a draw, they choose to draw.

I'm not 100% sure that this is guaranteed to be fully actually the worse-case. Some of these stipulations can conflict with each other. But we can't simulate every possible way to run a worse-case scenario.

But at least it ought to get close to worst-case. By throwing this scenario in there, it ought to give us a lot more confidence in a "100%" result. If all of our ordinary simulations come up as positive, it's probably worth-while to get a sense of whether you're "actually" locked.

There's quite a big difference between 100% and 99.9% since we can't guarantee that the worst-case scenario is ACTUALLY rare. Some players may choose to play it out if they know for sure that there's a series of events that cause them to miss top 8 with a draw.

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