CodeForPhilly / CodeForPhilly/chime

["model"] Default value for gamma (infectious days)

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#492 2 commenti 0 reazioni 2 assegnatari Rivendicata da @mdbecker Vedi su GitHub
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Descrizione

**Can you check your assumptions for this default value for gamma γ = 1/14, where 14 days?**

The value of 14 days seems high. Most other models use 7 days or a range from 3 to 7 days. ([Wolfel et. al](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1)).

γ is the inverse of the mean infectious period. right?

There is a reference in the documentation, "γ: the CDC is recommending 14 days of self-quarantine, we'll use γ=1/14."

**Is this is referencing the CDC period of active monitoring?** Which is based on >97.5CI incubation period [Lauer et al.](https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported), rather than the mean infection period.

γ is referred to in different places in the documentation as the inverse of mean recovery time or the average infection period (in documentation Model/Parameters). The mean recovery time is about 14 days ([Verity et al.](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext)) is different from the average infectious period. In the application, the term "infectious days" is used.

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