CodeForPhilly / CodeForPhilly/chime

Chime model - SIR calculation

Abierto
#419 2 comentarios 0 reacciones 2 asignados Reclamado por @mdbecker Ver en GitHub
models
Lenguaje dominante
Python
Estrellas
210
Forks
153
Métricas de merge de PR
Sin PR fusionados en 30 d

Descripción

Hello,

I am testing the following set of parameters:

Currently Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients 69
Doubling time before social distancing (days) 4
Social distancing (% reduction in social contact) 30%
Hospitalization %(total infections) 2.5%
ICU %(total infections) 0.75%
Ventilated %(total infections) 0.5%
Hospital Length of Stay 7
ICU Length of Stay 9
Vent Length of Stay 10
Hospital Market Share (%) 15%
Regional Population 100,000

My t = 0 numbers are:
Susceptible: 71,290
Infected: 19,653
Recovered: 9,055

Given the above initial set of inputs/parameters, I get the following parameters after application of social distancing: beta = 0.00000182445, gamma = 0.071429 (assuming 14 days for recovery). Therefore, my number of infected people during t=1 should be:
I(1) = (S(0)*beta*I(0)-gamma*I(0)) + I(0) = (71,290 * 0.00000182445 * 19,653 - 0.071429 * 19,653) + 19,653 = 20,805

However, when I plug in the initial parameters into your CHIME model, I get infected people at t = 1 to be 20,813. I realize that the difference is small, however, the difference diverges the further out in time I go.

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you.

Guía de contribución

Abrir la guía de contribución

Evaluación

Este issue todavía no se ha evaluado.

Recibe los nuevos issues en tu correo

Un resumen breve de issues de GitHub para principiantes.