CodeForPhilly / CodeForPhilly/chime

["model"] Check impact of latent period delay from infectious to hospitalized on model dynamics and forecasts

Abierto
#340 6 comentarios 0 reacciones 1 asignado Reclamado por @PhilMiller Ver en GitHub
models
Lenguaje dominante
Python
Estrellas
210
Forks
153
Métricas de merge de PR
Sin PR fusionados en 30 d

Descripción

### Summary

There's no a priori reason to assume that transition of a person from the Susceptible to Infectious states corresponds with immediate development of symptoms requiring hospitalization. If there's a separation in time, then the model may be mis-predicting spread in the region by initializing `I` based on present-day hospitalizations.

We need to check whether accounting for this affects relevant forecast outputs.

### Additional details

### Suggested fix

Shift the initialization from current hospitalizations to community infection rate back in time by a configurable `latent_period`, and then shift forecast admissions of newly-infected individuals forward in time by that same `latent_period`

Guía de contribución

Abrir la guía de contribución

Evaluación

Este issue todavía no se ha evaluado.

Recibe los nuevos issues en tu correo

Un resumen breve de issues de GitHub para principiantes.