publish confluence fails with project output-dir

Bug description

I am trying to publish my project to confluence.
When I set the project's output-dir to anything but default, the rendering succeeds but the publishing fails.
When I remove output-dir: from _quarto.yml, the publishing succeeds.

Here is the error message (after some editing to remove personal information):

quarto publish confluence applying_variations/applying_variations.qmd

? Publish update to: ...
[✓] Verifying...
Rendering for publish:


Starting python3 kernel...(Notebook read from cache)

pandoc
  to: publish
  output-file: applying_variations.xml
  toc: true
  number-sections: true

metadata
  author: ...
    title: ...
  date: ...

ERROR: NotFound: No such file or directory (os error 2), stat '...applying_variations.xml'

NotFound: No such file or directory (os error 2), stat '.../quarto_output/applying_variations.xml'
    at Object.statSync (deno:runtime/js/30_fs.js:322:9)
    at file:///Applications/quarto/bin/quarto.js:121363:18
    at Array.reduce (<anonymous>)
    at normalizePublishFiles (file:///Applications/quarto/bin/quarto.js:121361:45)
    at renderForPublish (file:///Applications/quarto/bin/quarto.js:121313:24)
    at async renderDocument (file:///Applications/quarto/bin/quarto.js:119935:12)
    at async publishDocument (file:///Applications/quarto/bin/quarto.js:120153:30)
    at async Object.publish3 [as publish] (file:///Applications/quarto/bin/quarto.js:120298:16)
    at async publishDocument (file:///Applications/quarto/bin/quarto.js:121352:38)
    at async publish5 (file:///Applications/quarto/bin/quarto.js:121448:132)

Steps to reproduce

Make a quarto project.
Set the output-dir: parameter in _quarto.yml
Then run the quarto publish confluence ... command from CLI.

Expected behavior

No response

Actual behavior

No response

Your environment

• MacOS: 14.0 (23A344)
• IDE: VScode.
• VScode Quarto extension v1.101.0 but running quarto publish from CLI.

Quarto check output

quarto check

[✓] Checking versions of quarto binary dependencies...
      Pandoc version 3.1.1: OK
      Dart Sass version 1.55.0: OK
[✓] Checking versions of quarto dependencies......OK
[✓] Checking Quarto installation......OK
      Version: 1.3.450
      Path: /Applications/quarto/bin

[✓] Checking basic markdown render....OK

[✓] Checking Python 3 installation....OK
      Version: 3.9.16 (Conda)
      Path: /Users/johnros/micromamba/bin/python
      Jupyter: 5.3.0
      Kernels: python3

[✓] Checking Jupyter engine render....OK

[✓] Checking R installation...........OK
      Version: 4.3.0
      Path: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Resources
      LibPaths:
        - /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.3-arm64/Resources/library
      knitr: (None)
      rmarkdown: (None)

      The rmarkdown package is not available in this R installation.
      Install with install.packages("rmarkdown")

Reproduce the failure with a Quarto project that sets output-dir in _quarto.yml, then run quarto publish confluence from the CLI and inspect how the publish flow resolves applying_variations.xml. Done means a project with a non-default output-dir renders and publishes successfully without the NotFound error.