tlmgr cannot install using macOS 12.5.1 and a BasicTeX install

Bug description

Hi, I use BasicTeX, a small TeX Live 2022 install for macOS. When rendering to PDF I get a permission error when tlmgr tries to install a required package.

It would be nice if I could enter my password when required. I can also manually run tlmgr based on the output from quarto, but I do appreciate the fact quarto tries to do this for me so I just wish it could handle authorisation...

▶︎ quarto render Quarto.qmd --to pdf
pandoc 
  to: latex
  output-file: Quarto.tex
  standalone: true
  pdf-engine: xelatex
  variables:
    graphics: true
    tables: true
  default-image-extension: pdf
  toc: true
  number-sections: true
  
metadata
  documentclass: scrartcl
  classoption:
    - DIV=11
    - numbers=noendperiod
  papersize: letter
  header-includes:
    - '\KOMAoption{captions}{tableheading}'
  block-headings: true
  title: Quarto
  author: Jane Doe
  lang: en
  bibliography:
    - /Users/ian/.local/share/pandoc/Core.json
  title-block-banner: true
  colorlinks: true
  
running xelatex - 1
  This is XeTeX, Version 3.141592653-2.6-0.999994 (TeX Live 2022) (preloaded format=xelatex)
   restricted \write18 enabled.
  entering extended mode
  
updating tlmgr

updating existing packages
finding package for tcolorbox.sty
> 1 package to install
> installing tcolorbox (1 of 1)
ERROR: tlmgr returned a non zero status code
You don't have permission to change the installation in any way,
specifically, the directory /usr/local/texlive/2022basic/tlpkg/ is not writable.
Please run this program as administrator, or contact your local admin.
tlmgr: An error has occurred. See above messages. Exiting.

Quarto version:

▶︎ quarto check

[✓] Checking Quarto installation......OK
      Version: 1.1.163
      Path: /Applications/quarto/bin

[✓] Checking basic markdown render....OK

[✓] Checking Python 3 installation....OK
      Version: 3.10.3
      Path: /Users/ian/.pyenv/versions/3.10.3/bin/python3
      Jupyter: (None)

      Jupyter is not available in this Python installation.
      Install with python3 -m pip install jupyter

[✓] Checking R installation...........OK
      Version: 4.2.1
      Path: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Resources
      LibPaths:
        - /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.2/Resources/library
      rmarkdown: 2.14

[✓] Checking Knitr engine render......OK

Checklist

• Please include a minimal, fully reproducible example in a single .qmd file? Please provide the whole file rather than the snippet you believe is causing the issue.
• Please format your issue so it is easier for us to read the bug report.
• Please document the RStudio IDE version you're running (if applicable), by providing the value displayed in the "About RStudio" main menu dialog?
• Please document the operating system you're running. If on Linux, please provide the specific distribution.

Start with the PDF rendering path invoked by quarto render and the tlmgr package-install step shown in the report. Trace how Quarto handles the non-zero tlmgr status when the TeX Live directory is not writable. Done means a BasicTeX user can provide authorization when required, while the existing automatic package installation still works.