Will DRPolicyForest control for confounder in Treatments that occured under different seasons?
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Description
@kbattocchi Hi Keith,
I wanted to understand how the DRPolicyForest would behave if I had 2 treatments in which one treatment is randomized data collected during December and the other treatment is randomized data collected during May.
If I were to specify confounder such as seasonal factors, would the DRPolicyForest be able to control for differences in seasons among the two treatments and make them more comparable?
For example:
- Treatment 1 from May generated $5 revenue per user
- Treatment 2 from December generated $8 revenue per user
We cannot compare $5 with $8 directly due to seasonal confounders.
Is there a way with the DRPolicyForest to show case how the adjusted figures for revenue per user would look like?
I.e. User A's observed Treatment 1 generated $4 in revenue. However, User's A de-biased revenue under Treatment 1 would be $3 (after controlling for confounder)?
Is that possible as I am only able to get the counterfactual effect values (model.predict_value(X_test)) for all treatments BUT the observed one. Or is there anything using the counterfactual values to showcase this point?
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Research direction
Start with the DRPolicyForest API and the model.predict_value(X_test) entry point mentioned in the issue. Determine whether seasonal confounders can be supplied and whether adjusted outcomes for the observed treatment are supported; done means providing a documented, reproducible answer or identifying the required capability.
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Assessment
- Tech stack
- python
- Domain
- machine-learning
- Issue type
- Feature
- Difficulty
- 5/5
- Estimated time
- Over a week
- Activity status
- Stale
- Clarity
- Needs clarification
- Newbie friendliness
- 25/100