py-why / py-why/EconML

Will DRPolicyForest control for confounder in Treatments that occured under different seasons?

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Description

@kbattocchi Hi Keith,
I wanted to understand how the DRPolicyForest would behave if I had 2 treatments in which one treatment is randomized data collected during December and the other treatment is randomized data collected during May.

If I were to specify confounder such as seasonal factors, would the DRPolicyForest be able to control for differences in seasons among the two treatments and make them more comparable?

For example:

  • Treatment 1 from May generated $5 revenue per user
  • Treatment 2 from December generated $8 revenue per user

We cannot compare $5 with $8 directly due to seasonal confounders.

Is there a way with the DRPolicyForest to show case how the adjusted figures for revenue per user would look like?
I.e. User A's observed Treatment 1 generated $4 in revenue. However, User's A de-biased revenue under Treatment 1 would be $3 (after controlling for confounder)?

Is that possible as I am only able to get the counterfactual effect values (model.predict_value(X_test)) for all treatments BUT the observed one. Or is there anything using the counterfactual values to showcase this point?

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Research direction

Start with the DRPolicyForest API and the model.predict_value(X_test) entry point mentioned in the issue. Determine whether seasonal confounders can be supplied and whether adjusted outcomes for the observed treatment are supported; done means providing a documented, reproducible answer or identifying the required capability.

Written by the indexing model from the issue text.

Assessment

Tech stack
python
Domain
machine-learning
Issue type
Feature
Difficulty
5/5
Estimated time
Over a week
Activity status
Stale
Clarity
Needs clarification
Newbie friendliness
25/100

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