iiasa / iiasa/message_ix

MESSAGE-MACRO fails to converge with small oscillations

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Description

With stringent scenarios, in terms of the cumulative carbon budget, convergence is still not achieved after 50 iterations and it seems that the current function to pick up on the oscillation also doesnt catch this.
A current scenario with which I encounter this is issue is:
Model: ENGAGE_SSP2_v4
Scenario: EN_NPi2020_700f
The last two iterations log entries are as follows and all previous are the same with the obj function alternating between these two points.
49 // 50
MESSAGEix OBJ 2446600.26636 // 2447568.38622
max adjustment pos 0.2 // 0.2
max adjustment neg 0.16664 // 0.16736
absolute max adjustment max/min 0.2 // 0.2
adjustment bound 0.2 // 0.2

Contributor guide

Open the contributing guide

Research direction

Reproduce the reported behavior with the ENGAGE_SSP2_v4 model and EN_NPi2020_700f scenario, then trace the MESSAGE-MACRO convergence and oscillation-detection logic. Compare the alternating objective values and adjustment bounds across iterations; done means the reported oscillation is detected or convergence behavior is otherwise corrected and verified after 50 iterations.

Written by the indexing model from the issue text.

Assessment

Domain
backend
Issue type
Bug
Difficulty
4/5
Estimated time
3-5 days
Activity status
Stale
Clarity
Needs clarification
Newbie friendliness
35/100

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