facebook / facebook/prophet

Issue with the trendline offset from the data

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Description

For certain datasets, I observed that the trendline is offset from the data. Typically it is lower than the data.
Here is an example
![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/10842166/219634655-f9094608-c516-478a-9146-505394d49b87.png)

In this example the data does not show any seasonal pattern, which make it not very suitable for prophet forecasting. However I would expect the trendline to be near the mean of the dataset.

Could anyone help me understand the underlying cause of this trendline offset?

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