facebook / facebook/prophet

Not able to predict the new covid-19 cases using FB prophet.

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Description

I am using Fb prophet to predict the upcoming covid cases every day in month of April. I have a dataset of daily covid cases up to March 2022. I have included holiday, and external regressor such as weekends, or daily covid testing but still, I am no way near the actual covid cases.

I have got high MAE and MAPE,

This is the plot of original data points -
![Screenshot (144)](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/47499505/167682208-4380ef0f-4dbf-438e-b1fb-5a241ef9260e.png)

This is my Dataset - y is the daily new cases, new_tests are the daily testing and workingday ( 1 for weekday and 0 for weekend)
![Screenshot (141)](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/47499505/167654243-7b1a35f7-d340-4d5d-acd0-99a087a884f3.png)

This is the additional holiday dataset -
![Screenshot (142)](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/47499505/167654741-9ce04ffd-3cfb-4a78-8e40-e3c206ff8eb4.png)

I used these parameters after cross - validation -
```
m = Prophet(growth = "linear",
yearly_seasonality = True,
weekly_seasonality = True,
daily_seasonality = False,
holidays = holidays,
seasonality_mode = "multiplicative",
n_changepoints = 10,
seasonality_prior_scale = 5,
holidays_prior_scale = 5,
changepoint_prior_scale = 0.01)
m.add_regressor('workingday')
m.add_regressor('new_tests')
m.fit(training_set)

```

But I got very poor results - The blue line is for predictions and black dots are for original points.
![Screenshot (143)](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/47499505/167681786-77c2f1db-59f7-43b7-b116-6edf1a374bf3.png)

The Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error are 68862 and 72610 respectively whereas Mean Absolute percentage error is 2702.99.

How can I Tune my hyperparameters or add any other regressor so that I can get low Error? or close predictions. Thanks.

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