facebook / facebook/prophet

Yearly seasonality with limited data set

Open
#1,940 1 comment 0 reactions 0 assignees View on GitHub
question
Dominant language
Python
Stars
20.4k
Forks
4.6k
Avg merge
19h 52m
Merged PRs (30d)
1

Description

Hello Everyone,
I am presently working on electricity demand forecasting model(s) using facebook prophet. For certain buildings we only have data from 2020 onwards with yearly seasonality. However the challenge is that with covid the demand on those buildings for 2020 were lower compared to the 2021 and hence the model is not exactly fitting the actual.
m= Prophet(holidays=holidays,yearly_seasonality=True,seasonality_mode="multiplicative",changepoint_prior_scale=0.01,seasonality_prior_scale=0.01)
m.add_regressor('mean external temperature')
m.add_regressor('weekday_N')
m.add_regressor('weekday_Y')
m.fit(prophet_training_set)
test_forecast = m.predict(prophet_test_set)
Is there any guidance on how to deal with situation

![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/8597718/121605083-1b2cff80-ca8f-11eb-93d9-0f18fa85d645.png)

![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/8597718/121604777-7ca09e80-ca8e-11eb-916c-9bfc046e548d.png)

![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/8597718/121605227-621af500-ca8f-11eb-849f-a366030c6ac5.png)

Contributor guide

Open the contributing guide

Assessment

This issue has not been assessed yet.

Get new issues in your inbox

A short digest of beginner-friendly GitHub issues.