Minimal Cw decline on south coast
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Description
Minimal decline on the south coast
• The CCISS results indicate minimal feasibility decline in Cw on the south coast, despite significant cedar decline observed.
• There is high agreement among gcm projections on a decline in precipitation in the Georgia basin. The observed decline in summer precipitation is at the low end of the global climate model ensemble for the same period (2001-2020). This is part of a sustained trend of declining summer precipitation over the past 30 years. However, this observed trend may be part of climatic oscillation (PDO) rather than a long-term trend. The key point is that the actual climate has a greater decline in precipitation than the ensemble projections, but this may reverse. However, increasing temperatures will contribute to increasing intensity of drought, even if precipitation were to remain stable.
• In addition, there is potential for changes in weather patterns (duration and intensity of weather events) to increase stresses on trees, in addition to changes in the monthly average climatic conditions.
• The analogs for the future climate of the CDFmm are CWHxm_WA, CWHmh_OR and CRFdh_CA.
FeasChange 2041-2060 on C4 sites
FeasChange 2041-2060 on B2 sites
Example: CDFmm
• Cw feasibility is maintained
BGC futures are CWHxm_WA, CWHmh_OR, (smaller proportion CRFdh_CA)
Georgia Depression
Drier summer, wetter in autumn, neutral in spring, wetter/neutral in winter
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Research direction
The issue contains climate-feasibility findings and linked figures for the south coast, CDFmm, and Georgia Depression, but it does not name files, tests, or a requested change. First clarify the intended deliverable and where these materials belong; completion criteria are not specified in the issue.
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