actualbudget / actualbudget/actual

[Feedback]: Monte Carlo Analysis Report

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Description

Documentation: [https://actualbudget.org/docs/experimental/monte-carlo-analysis](https://actualbudget.org/docs/experimental/monte-carlo-analysis)

**Asks from users:**
- [x] Consistent dropdown ordering - https://github.com/actualbudget/actual/pull/8847
- In the pots section, sort the linked accounts dropdown to match the sidebar account order
- [x] Smarter default pot names - https://github.com/actualbudget/actual/pull/8847
- For pots with linked accounts, default to the linked account's name instead of generic "Pot 1", "Pot 2", etc.
- [x] Floor & Ceiling and Boundaries withdrawal rules issue https://github.com/actualbudget/actual/pull/8861
- The rules are anchoring to year 1 instead of the first spending year. This issue only shows up when the first year is not a spending year
- [ ] One-time withdrawal from a pot
- Allow a fixed, one-off withdrawal from a specific pot in a given year (e.g. withdrawing from a pension investment account for a house deposit, which is permitted in some countries).
- The simulation run should fail if the pot balance is insufficient to cover the one-off withdrawal in that year.
- [ ] Can taxes be simplified?
- Some confusion about entering taxable amount on the pots vs on the taxes page. Maybe we should pull in the pots to the taxes page and allocate the taxable amounts there.
- [ ] Add a retirement age propety
- I had deliberately left this off, as the spending phase can be started at any age (which is essentially the same thing), but it might make it more user friendly to have a retirement age.
- [ ] Income streams (e.g. defined-benefit pensions / Social Security)
- Add a new "income stream" concept alongside pots: a fixed amount per month with a start age (or event), duration (default lifetime), and an inflation-linked toggle
- Income is applied against expenses before calculating pot withdrawals, so only the net shortfall is drawn from pots
- If income exceeds expenses in a given period, allow the surplus to be reinvested into a designated pot (virtual pot?)
- Unlike pots, income streams have no balance, cannot be depleted, and are not subject to return/volatility assumptions
- [ ] Birth year instead of age
- Replace the age input with a birth year so the current age is calculated automatically
- Avoids the report settings going stale and needing a manual update every year
- [x] Custom stock/bond mix - https://github.com/actualbudget/actual/pull/8881
- Percentage weight fields on Custom pots so they work with the historical models
- [x] Joint historical inflation - https://github.com/actualbudget/actual/pull/8852
- Add the historical CPI series; historical models sample returns and inflation from the same year
- [ ] Block bootstrap model
- New "Historical returns, block bootstrap" return model with ~10-year average blocks

**Asks from users - for later**
- [ ] Multiple linked accounts per pot
- Allow linking several accounts to a single pot (e.g. multiple 401k accounts that share the same settings)
- Will give users a slightly easier setup
- [ ] Spouse/partner support
- Model a partner with a different retirement date/timeline
- [ ] Unsaved changes warning - perhaps should be across all reports, not specific to monte carlo
- Add a pop-up confirmation box when leaving edit mode by navigating to another page

**Asks from users - Not planning**
- Country-specific rule presets
- A country switcher to load local rules/nuances and pre-populate tax bands
- **REASON:** We deliberately made this country agnostic so we don't have to maintain country rulesets/tax rates etc (they change too often)

**Features worth adding:**
- [x] A breakdown of the withdrawal calculation for when withdrawal rules are applied https://github.com/actualbudget/actual/pull/8863
- [x] Cashflow chart - visual representation of what money being withdrawn from where for year - https://github.com/actualbudget/actual/pull/8903
- e.g. First 5 years the money might come out of general investment, then after it would come out of pension
- [ ] The idea of a cash holding pot, that would hold any excess withdrawals that were taken - this could then be prioritised in the withdrawal order.
- E.g. If you had guardrails on, want to take 40k out per year but had some good years, so are taking 50k this year, the extra 10k could be held in a `virtual` cash pot and prioritised, so that the following year you draw from the excess instead of assuming all withdrawn money is spent.

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