Smithsonian / Smithsonian/layup

Gauss triplet selection is blind to close encounters, where the method cannot work

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bug
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Python
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10
Forks
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1d 43m
Merged PRs (30d)
58

Description

Summary

_build_sequence splits observations into segments on observation-time gaps alone
(orbitfit.py:677, sep_dt=90.0) and takes the longest-span chunk as seq[0]. gauss_iod
then uses that chunk's first, middle and last observation (iod.py:102-104). Nothing in the
selection knows any dynamics.

Gauss's method assumes Keplerian heliocentric motion across the triplet. If the span contains a
close planetary encounter that assumption fails outright: the pre- and post-encounter
heliocentric orbits are different orbits, so no root satisfies all three observations. The
method returns nothing, or returns a spurious root which is then integrated through the
encounter — which is the grind apply_ias15_min_dt's comment describes.

The selection makes this likely rather than rare. Observing around a close approach is
continuous — inbound, closest approach, outbound — so those observations contain no 90-day
gap and form a single chunk, and being densely sampled they are a good candidate for seq[0].

Where
  • src/layup/orbitfit.py:677_build_sequence, splits on gaps > sep_dt, picks longest span
  • src/layup/iod.py:102-104gauss_iod, first/middle/last of seq[0]
Observed

(367943) Duende passes 34,053 km from Earth on 2013-02-15 (0.09 lunar distances) and its
optical arc runs 2012-02-23 to 2013-02-21, so any triplet drawn from that span straddles the
encounter. It is one of two numbered objects the full-catalogue re-fit could not fit; the
other, (308635) 2005 YU55 at 0.85 LD, now converges.

Suggested

Exclude a segment containing a close approach from seq[0], or draw the triplet from one side
of it. Layup already loads the ephemeris needed to know where close approaches are.

Related: #465, #486.

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Research direction

Start with _build_sequence in src/layup/orbitfit.py:677 and trace how the loaded ephemeris is available during sequence selection. Then inspect gauss_iod in src/layup/iod.py:102-104 and the related issues #465 and #486. Done means triplets containing a close encounter are excluded or selected from one side, allowing the Duende refit to converge without the reported spurious root or integration grind.

Written by the indexing model from the issue text.

Assessment

Tech stack
python
Domain
data
Issue type
Bug
Difficulty
4/5
Estimated time
3-5 days
Activity status
Active
Clarity
Mostly clear
Newbie friendliness
52/100

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