PolicyEngine / PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

Validate against HMRC 'ready runner'

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validation
Dominant language
Python
Stars
50
Forks
33
Avg merge
20h 58m
Merged PRs (30d)
14

Description

The HMRC 'ready runner' shows "estimates of the effects of illustrative tax changes on tax receipts in 2022 to 2023, 2023 to 2024, and 2024 to 2025, based on implementation in April 2022." Many of these could be reproduced in OpenFisca UK, such as income tax and NI reforms, though HMRC includes behavioral responses for these (I couldn't find their elasticities or methodology).

The most directly comparable is Child Benefit reform, which they evaluate statically. For example, they estimate that increasing the first child rate by £1 per week would cost 370mn in 2022-2023. PolicyEngine estimates 334mn in 2021.

This would be a nice addition to our validation page.

Contributor guide

Open the contributing guide

First steps

  1. Read the whole issue, then the project's contributing guide.
  2. Comment on the issue to say you are picking it up — it saves two people doing the same work.
  3. Fork the repository and make your change on a branch.
  4. Open a pull request that references the issue number.

Research direction

Start with the existing validation page and the HMRC “ready runner” publication linked in the issue. Compare the static Child Benefit example first, then assess whether other income tax or NI reforms can be reproduced without HMRC’s behavioral-response methodology. Done means the validation page reports comparable estimates and explains any remaining difference.

Written by the indexing model from the issue text.

Assessment

Tech stack
python
Domain
testing
Issue type
Feature
Difficulty
4/5
Estimated time
3-5 days
Activity status
Stale
Clarity
Mostly clear
Newbie friendliness
35/100

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