PolicyEngine / PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data
No calibration targets for UC elements: childcare runs 2.3x official, housing/LCWRA/carer unbenchmarked
@juaristi22 is already working on this.
Since Aug 21, 2026.
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Description
Most of UC entitlement is calibrated against nothing. sources/dwp.py targets caseload, family type, payment bands, deductions and the two-child limit — but no element counts. Only the childcare element has a published comparator, and the model is 2.3x it.
Model vs official, enhanced FRS 2023-24 v1.56.16, 2025:
| Element | Model recipients | Official | Err |
|---|---|---|---|
| Childcare | 370k | 160k | +131% |
| Child | 3.077m (48.1% of hh) | 47% of hh | ok |
| Housing | 5.193m | — | no target |
| LCWRA / health | 2.041m | — | no target |
| Carer | 0.560m | — | no target |
Childcare official: UC statistics to 9 Oct 2025 (160k Aug 2025, 170k Aug 2024). The rest are Stat-Xplore UC_Households only — not in any bulletin.
Related: family-type targets sum to 6.096m against a dwp/uc/households target of 6.7m (the vintage tension noted in #458), and the 3+ children rows run 16-22% low:
| Family type | Model | DWP | Err |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single, no children | 3.210m | 2.868m | +11.9% |
| Couple, no children | 0.280m | 0.231m | +21.1% |
| 3 children | 0.369m | 0.473m | -22.0% |
| 4 children | 0.136m | 0.167m | -18.3% |
| 5+ children | 0.064m | 0.076m | -16.2% |
Next steps
- Register a Stat-Xplore API key and add element-count targets for housing, LCWRA, carer, childcare from
UC_Households. - Add the childcare 160k target now — it is published and needs no key.
- Refresh the family-type values to a current Stat-Xplore month so they sum consistently with
dwp/uc/households(the #458 follow-up). - Once these exist, microcosm#729's
national_calibration.pypicks them up through the reference registry; no microcosm change needed until then.
cc @MaxGhenis @vahid-ahmadi
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