WS-C deferred adjudications and the reconciliation layer

Central registry of the adjudications deferred during the #622 build-out (PR #735) and the calibration-target deferrals accumulated since, to be reviewed as the spine (#145/WS-E) and calibration workstreams converge on the first certified cut. Each item links its signed rationale in the committed resources (uk/target_reference_membership.json, uk/ledger_compile_parity_*_signed_differences.json, uk/calibration_measure_exclusions.json). Items graduate to their own issues when they become actionable. Spine-lane counterpart: #796.

Deferred adjudications from the #622 build-out

• Property-income ×1.9 undercount → reconciliation home. The incumbent scales SPI Table 3.7 amounts ×1.9 (trace: policyengine-uk-data#311 / policyengine-uk-data#230 — SPI covers only taxpayers with liability; HMRC Property Rental Income Statistics show £46.68bn vs SPI ~£24.5bn for 2020-21). The family is signed-excluded from activation. Doctrine-clean paths: a chronicle package for the rental statistics + a declared reconciliation, or a declared value-scaling operation citing #230. This is the anchor case for the reconciliation layer.

• Region-grain activation for the 18 two-level contract targets — Fixture A's 131 region×age production rows are structurally unmatched while activation pins country grain. Landed: microcosm#906 (merged 2026-09-15) fans the two-level targets over the region tier; the council-tax region controls are composed from the 296 authority rows since microcosm#934 (2026-09-16).

• ons.population.scotland_households_3plus_children — the contract wants a household-composition fact that does not exist at ≤2025; needs a chronicle-side fact or an adjudicated alternative source.

• TCL year surface — the incumbent pins the April-2025 publication values at {2026}; the Ledger side activates at 2025. Revisit when a 2026-vintage publication exists.

• CGT 2025 level → #875 (2026-09-05). Superseded facts: since the Chronicle re-pin (microcosm#874) the latest outturn is 2024-25 (£127.3bn of gains, 584k taxpayers — the forestalling year ahead of the October 2024 rate rise) and the doctrine binds it at face value at the 2025 period; the engine's 2025-26 rates on those gains overshoot OBR's FY2025-26 receipts by +44.2% (obr.capital_gains_tax@2025). Ruled option 1: facts stay bound as published, the OBR miss is signed on the publication-stack register (obr.capital_gains_tax@2025, adjudication #875, window 2026-09-05 → 2026-10-05). Deliverable in #875: the index ruling for a declared 2024-25 → 2025 translation (rate-adjusted; a derived Chronicle fact), applying uprating_index in the compile step, the taxpayer count flat at 584k, and the cash-lag mapping for self-assessed OBR lines.

• The 347 uprating holds — currently explicit identity holds; per-family index declarations belong to the materialization layer.

• Salary-sacrifice canonical source — HMRC-table facts vs the incumbent's OBR-forecast rows (value ratios 0.81–1.14); pick per target when calibration binds them. (The five measure exclusions covering the family are windowed to 2026-11-25.)

• UC payment-band source-only rows — 12 'No payment' / 'or over' facts skipped in fan-out (no safe incumbent inverse).

• UC family-split month choice — resolved for the implemented paid-family/source-window comparison by #891/#892: explicit monthly windows and complete-month checks, including the twelve-month CY2025 paid headline/family/child margins, replace latest-month resolution. Remaining claim/cohort and administrative-family approximations stay in #882.

• #623 disposition — resolved: the calibration seam landed via #729/#743, its gate story completed in PR #793, and #623 closes with that PR (residual acceptance work tracked here and in #796).

• TCL retirement at the year move — the limit is abolished from 2026-04-06 (Budget 2025; policyengine-uk-data#465), so at period 2026 the 15 TCL targets are structurally zero: the references must retire or re-vintage with the calibration-year move (WS-F/#723). Add the contract-side guard from uk-data#465's step 2: a test refusing a reference whose binding variable is structurally zero at the reference period. (Our 2025 activation is unaffected — the limit is in force in FY 2025-26; when uk-data#465 moves the incumbent's values to 2025, Fixture B's 15 TCL ledger-only additions become matched rows at the next pin refresh.)

• UC element-count targets (housing, LCWRA, carer, childcare — policyengine-uk-data#466, #738 step 3): no contract declarations exist; pipeline is chronicle facts first (childcare's published 160k series needs no API key — easiest first package; the rest need Stat-Xplore UC_Households exports), then a contract amendment per the #727 precedent, then references auto-activate on regeneration. Facts requested: PolicyEngine/chronicle#187.

• Council tax level (microcosm#929 CT-C, graduated 2026-09-16 on closure): obr.council_tax (UK, net of CTR, £50.9bn) measures −12.8 % on the microcosm#934 candidate (−11.0 % on D2: the dwelling over-weighting that propped it up is gone). On the spine England's gross council tax averages about £1,522 per household against a requirement near £1,815 (MHCLG 2025-26 average Band D £2,280); the amount comes from frs_council_tax and is never tied to the authority's rate, and CTR is under-simulated (Scotland +17 %, Wales +9 % on the incumbent; uk-data#448). Reconciliation home: rules-based liability from band × the authority's Band D level (MHCLG Table 10 × 296, CTAS 2026 × 32 and the WG levels × 22 are all in the pinned feed) × the statutory ratios × the single-adult discount (CTB line 8 by band, also in the feed), with CTR engine-side (policyengine-uk#1669 / #150). Until then the OBR nation rows (obr.council_tax_{england,scotland,wales}, generator-pinned to E92/S92/W92 while Chronicle stamps K02000001) stay report-only, and a signed asymmetry on obr.council_tax for receipts on non-household dwellings (second homes and empties with premiums, which a household file cannot carry) is the honest disposition. The incumbent's housing/council_tax_net × 318 authorities stays blocked on its source (MHCLG taxbase × Band D proxy). Pairs with uk-data#448.

• water_and_sewerage_charges raw-mapping divergence — resolved by fix-and-sign during the #686 lane: verified on the raw FRS 2024-25 tab (12,644 vs 14,307 nonzero households, all 1,663 differing households Scottish), the defect is the incumbent's NaN-propagating addition of the retired CSEWAMT header, and the candidate side stands. Signed as scottish-water-incumbent-nan-zeroing (defect_fix, +0.1009) on uk/spine_swap_signed_differences.json with a quantitative bound; latent in the incumbent since at least 2023-24 and surviving at 1.56.16.

• Census household counts bind at the 2021/22 vintage in the first rowwise local candidate (revision 2026-09-02, microcosm#762 A11). The #802 bridge that reconciles the OA ladder's census household counts (650 constituencies + 361 local authorities) to the national household-composition partition cannot bind while three of its ten cells (multi_family_households, unrelated_adult_households, lone_parent_non_dependent_children_households) are #791's reviewed measure exclusions (in force to 2026-11-26). The rowwise candidate therefore classifies that bridge as unbound with a receipt (cross_grain.unbound_bridges in the candidate plan and manifest) and binds the 1,011 census household rows as published — 2021 for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, 2022 for Scotland — while every national row binds at the 2025 calibration period. The vintage gap is a known level pull (−2.58% household mass measured at K=2 in July); it is re-measured in the #762 receipts. Resolution rides #791 (the relationship-to-head column) or a shares/uprating ruling on the local family; until then the deferral is deliberate and visible, not silent. Revised 2026-09-03 (microcosm#762 A15): the shares/uprating ruling landed — every ladder household row now binds uprated to the calibration year by one national factor from the Ledger's ons.households_total fact (29,003,000 for 2025 over the ladder's 28,060,832 = 1.033577), receipted in the candidate manifest and mandatory under --release-candidate; the bridge stays unbound until #791. See the next item.

• Five reviewed measure exclusions for national rows the spine cannot reach by reweighting (microcosm#762 A16, ruling 2026-09-03; window 2026-09-03 → 2026-10-03; erratum in the 2026-09-03 comment below). Register uk/calibration_measure_exclusions.json (49 entries): ons.savings_interest_income (spine £13.8bn vs ONS D.41 £95.5bn, HMRC SPI £18.3bn — a frame gap plus a concept gap) → #866; obr.housing_benefit (£2.7bn vs £12.1bn) → #867; slc.borrowers.plan_2_liable and slc.borrowers.plan_2_above_threshold (−65 % / −69 %) → #868; dwp.jsa_claimants (2.8×) → #869. The two ONS land rows first listed (8.7× / 2.5×) were withdrawn the same day: their misses were an artefact of per-block engine resolution in the candidate driver (receipt R15), and single-block resolution puts them within 3 % and 9 % of the ONS balance sheet. Each exclusion fails the run on expiry: correct the spine (the issues) or re-adjudicate. Also ruled the same day and applied on uk-rowwise-candidate-762-b: stretch bound 10, grain_equal, K=15 and 1500 epochs as UK local doctrine constants; A17, the census tenure cells uprate with the ladder rows.

• Local target surface: 68 signed deferrals covering 513 cells (uk/local_target_reference_membership.json → signed_deferrals; no expiry — each retires when the fact lands or the frame supports it). Of 21,519 candidate references, 19,105 are active; 314 have no fact at or before the period, 1,586 no fact for the area, 513 are signed. By reason: msoa_mean_to_la_deferred (3 targets, 1,083 area-cells: ONS equivalised income is MSOA-grain means, LA aggregation waits on the mean-aggregation design — #147 lineage, no issue of its own); council_tax_voa_scotland_absent (256 cells: the VOA feed has no Scottish band counts — a chronicle-side fact ask, no issue yet); council_tax_wales_country_control_absent (176 cells, #762 A13: no Wales country stock-by-band fact — asked for in the 2026-09-03 comment, no issue yet); council_tax_ni_domestic_rates (88: NI has domestic rates, structurally absent); private_rent_pipr_* (4 reasons, 361 cells: the PIPR feed is 2026-06 only, after the period, missing four English authorities, Scottish BRMA grain, no NI — chronicle-side, no issue yet); uc_gb_only_ni_absent / uc_children_gb_only_ni_absent (101 cells: Stat-Xplore UC local facts cover GB only — no issue yet); spi_la_target_measure_coverage_absent / spi_pcon_self_employment_mean_absent (9 cells: SPI publishes medians only for E06000027, nothing for Scilly, one constituency lacks the SE mean — structurally absent); council_tax_city_of_london_band_a_suppressed (1: VOA suppression); local_authority_support_floor_excluded (43) and council_tax_band_h_spine_support_absent (296) are spine-side and tracked on #796. Revision 2026-09-16 (microcosm#934): 20,885 active, 341 signed cells; council_tax_voa_scotland_absent, council_tax_wales_country_control_absent, council_tax_ni_domestic_rates and council_tax_city_of_london_band_a_suppressed retired with dates under the census family (uk/uk_local_target_census.json → retired_deferrals); the 297 band-H cells (296 English + Shetland) remain, tracked in #796.

• Local binding adjudications (uk/local_binding_adjudications.json, 6 entries; #802 2026-08-31 → 2026-11-30, #762 A1 2026-09-02 → 2026-12-02): the fences lifted so the local families may bind — census disclosure-control noise; the SPI frame-model proxy; full-FRS TEI bands unavailable; population universe = private households; UC bound at benefit-unit grain; VOA dwellings vs the household frame. Each is a target-side reconciliation the family stands on; renewal or a real fix falls due at expiry. No issue yet. Revision 2026-09-16: voa_dwellings_vs_household_frame re-adjudicated onto the taxbase basis by microcosm#934 (approved 2026-09-15, expires 2026-12-15; England and Wales occupied chargeable ≈ households, Scotland chargeable +1.2 %).

• Local uprating holds (17,077 cells; uprating_holds in the local membership): age 2024, SPI tax-year 2023 and the census tenure cells 2021/22 are held to 2025 as identity except tenure, which A17 uprates with the ladder rows; UC 2025-05 and council-tax stock 2025 carry none. Same resolution as the national 347 holds above: per-family index declarations in the materialization layer, or later facts (asked for in the 2026-09-03 comment).

The uk_target_fit disposition remainder (PR #793's adjudication queue)

The adjudicated exclusion pass (42 windowed entries, expiring 2026-11-26, correct-or-renew at apply time) landed in PR #793; the first certified cut blocks on what remains:

• The 8 UC caseload/two-child-limit cells (−28.6%…−62.0% at the post-exclusion optimum): the pre-registered U8 take-up lever is measured and exhausted (0.85 leaves every cell unchanged while destroying housing benefit −0.0% → −52.4%); the measured lever is capital-test support — #750 / policyengine-uk#1824. Decide: wait for #750, retarget, or exclude.
• hmrc/dividend_income_count_income_band_500_000_to_1_000_000 — the historical −36.7% failure recovered after #803; the post-fix validation records −2.2% on spine-i and −2.3% on spine-j. This closes that historical band-definition defect, not future release validation.
• #792 — measure materialization is exclusion-set-dependent — resolved by #803 and the post-merge validation on #792. The cause was deterministic band-edge derivation from the pruned registry; the RNG hypothesis was refuted. Band edges now come from the compiled pre-exclusion register, with roster-invariance checks.
• Doctrine posture for the certified cut: the Phase-3 run carries epochs 1500 / family_equal as receipted overrides (the 2026-08-24 ruling keeps uniform the default); the certification records them verbatim. Promote to doctrine, or certify with receipted overrides.
• Fuel-duties ledger retarget (household-incidence fact vs total receipts — chronicle-side): the binding is verified correct; the gap is universe scope plus LCFS diary under-capture at 37% of implied litres. The target carries a windowed exclusion meanwhile.
• The five publication-stack target-fit exclusions due 2026-09-30 — retired in #892: dwp.uc.households_single_with_children, dwp.uc.households_children_1, dwp.uc.households_children_2, dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more, and hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000. The canonical comparison evidence records all five within the unchanged 25% bound at 1,500 updates / family_equal. Remaining UC diagnosis and remeasurement are consolidated in #882; this does not certify an artifact.
• Sixth entry (2026-09-05, on uk-publication-stack-834, microcosm#874 composition): obr.capital_gains_tax@2025 (+44.2%, the 2024-25 forestalling-year gains bound at 2025 — #875), window 2026-09-05 → 2026-10-05. The #874 run-4 receipt also reports the private-pension band entry stale (+24.7%, back inside the bound; the rot rule wants it removed) and two unsigned state-pension SPI bands (50–70k +34.6%, 20–30k +25.3%) outside the bound.
• Exclusion-window renewals fall due 2026-11-25/26: the 5 salary-sacrifice and 42 target-fit entries all fail closed on expiry — each needs its gap corrected or its adjudication renewed by then.

National calibration-target issues previously untracked here

• #790 — adjudicate the incumbent's four post-calibration aggregate scalers (the rail/bus/fuel class deliberately left out of E6 scope)
• #789 — UK bus fare and subsidy consumer targets from Chronicle facts
• #738 — superseded by #882. Composition activation and the first candidate remeasurement landed; remaining element integration and remeasurement after the outstanding repairs are carried forward in #882.
• #701 — superseded by #882. Missing UC caseload bindings are repaired; expenditure comparability and certified consumer acceptance are carried forward in #882.
• #704 — sequence calibration after the amounts imputations; staging seam has no CGT target parity evidence
• #731 — the scorecard (populace_uk_2023 vs enhanced_frs_2024_25 vs admin benchmarks) — becomes the acceptance probe of the first certified cut
• #661 — publish Chronicle package IDs in calibration diagnostics targets

Refs: #622, #735, #665, #145, #796, PR #793.

Start with the unchecked adjudications and their signed resources, including uk/target_reference_membership.json, uk/ledger_compile_parity_*_signed_differences.json, and uk/calibration_measure_exclusions.json. Identify one item that has become actionable and follow its referenced issue or data source before proposing a separate change. Done is defined by the relevant item graduating to its own issue or receiving the stated contract, fact, test, or reconciliation decision.