PolicyEngine / PolicyEngine/microcosm
Head-of-household filer-share untargeted; HoH-repeal has no external anchor to validate against
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Description
Surfaced on the RCC dashboard's Build P validation refresh: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/refundable-credit-conversion/pull/72
Observation
The RCC head_of_household toggle applies gov.contrib.congress.romney.family_security_act.remove_head_of_household, which reassigns HoH filers to SINGLE. Modal endpoint on policyengine 5.0.1 bundling populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z:
| HoH repeal (TY2026) | PE Build P | external anchor |
|---|---|---|
| federal tax revenue impact | $9.4B | none published |
Two gaps:
- No published HoH-repeal revenue benchmark — the RCC validation row ships with
externalBillions: nulland no diff can be computed. QBI, ALD, OBBBA all have JCT/CBO comparators; HoH does not. - No HoH filer-share target in populace calibration — zero hits for
head_of_household,hoh, orfiling_statussubstring in Build P'scalibration_diagnostics.json(5,659 targets). HoH filer share is therefore wholly inherited from the donor CPS/PUF distribution with no target-side correction.
Whether the $9.4B is right, low, or high is unknowable with the current setup.
Ask
- Add a HoH filer-count / mass target so the share is anchored. Candidate source: IRS SOI Publication 1304 Table 1.2 (returns by filing status).
- Identify a published HoH-repeal benchmark to slot into the RCC validation surface and #535's
repeal_revenue_benchmarks.json. Candidates worth checking:- Romney Family Security Act scoring (JCT ad-hoc for §102(b)(2)(A))
- Tax Foundation options briefs
- CBO Budget Options — the 2018 volume scored "Eliminate Head of Household Filing Status"; unclear whether 2024/2025 volumes re-scored.
Reproducer
reform = {
"gov.contrib.congress.romney.family_security_act.remove_head_of_household":
{"2026-01-01.2100-12-31": True},
}
# expected: ??? (no published anchor)
# observed on Build P (Modal endpoint, PE 5.0.1): $9.4B
Refs
- RCC validation surface refresh: refundable-credit-conversion#72
- Per-component repeal-revenue surface: #535
Contributor guide
First steps
- Read the whole issue, then the project's contributing guide.
- Comment on the issue to say you are picking it up — it saves two people doing the same work.
- Fork the repository and make your change on a branch.
- Open a pull request that references the issue number.
Research direction
Start with Build P's calibration_diagnostics.json and the RCC validation refresh in refundable-credit-conversion#72, then inspect #535's repeal_revenue_benchmarks.json. Check IRS SOI Publication 1304 Table 1.2 and the listed JCT, Tax Foundation, and CBO sources for filing-status and HoH-repeal anchors. Done means a HoH target is added and a defensible published benchmark is integrated into the validation surfaces.
Written by the indexing model from the issue text.
Assessment
- Tech stack
- python
- Domain
- data
- Issue type
- Feature
- Difficulty
- 5/5
- Estimated time
- Over a week
- Activity status
- Quiet
- Clarity
- Mostly clear
- Newbie friendliness
- 35/100