PolicyEngine / PolicyEngine/microcosm
CG depth charter: close the dense netCG gap (−30.8%, B) so the dense arm can publish
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- Python
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Description
Chartered by Max 2026-07-28 ("charter cg depth yes"). The dense arm's sole structural fit blocker: table_1_4.all.net_capital_gains_amount target $1,270.9B, dense final $879.1B — −30.8%, invariant across two bases and three attempts (byte-level agreement between Build P2 attempts 2/3; dense-P at base-P: −30.99%). The sparse arm passes the same row via rmloss100 L0 concentration; the ratio-bounded full-pool solve cannot reach it. Receipts: #507 attempts 2/3.
Phase 1 — diagnostic (sol lane RUNNING)
- Decompose the shortfall on the dense frame at final weights: carrier composition, participation vs magnitude vs top-tail.
- Aggregate-record hypothesis: the raw TY2015 PUF's four MARS==0 aggregate records carry the extreme tail and the pipeline drops them (proven for NOL: they absorb most of SOI's $197.5B). Measure raw CG fields regular-vs-aggregate, weighted, vs SOI 1.4 ty2015; then donor and frame. If the pool structurally lacks the top CG tail, quantify the reachable ceiling under the current ratio bound.
- How concentrated is the sparse arm's passing CG mass (top-100 share)? Bears on pool-defect vs arm-design.
Phase 2 — design (on diagnostic receipts)
Candidates to cost, none pre-committed: truthful aggregate-tail representation at base-build (provenanced synthetic tail records — inverse-#462 spirit: adding measured mass, not clamping); CG-specific QRF tail-depth work (donor-vs-frame tail quantiles); SCF blend leverage (scf_wealth already ON).
Anti-charter (standing doctrine): no loss shaping, no per-target multipliers, no gate/envelope changes, no max_weight_ratio bumps as "the fix".
Exit criterion
A dense run whose netCG row passes the existing 0.25 gate on truthful inputs — no gate moved. Unblocks dense-P3 publication alongside #566 (dense take-up threshold design).
Related: #487 (cancelling-legs class), #462 (donor-tail machinery), #566, #507 receipts.
Contributor guide
First steps
- Read the whole issue, then the project's contributing guide.
- Comment on the issue to say you are picking it up — it saves two people doing the same work.
- Fork the repository and make your change on a branch.
- Open a pull request that references the issue number.
Research direction
Start with the diagnostic receipts from #507 and the dense-frame final weights. Compare raw TY2015 PUF regular and aggregate records against SOI 1.4 TY2015, then measure donor and frame tail coverage and the sparse arm's top-100 share. Done means a dense run passes the existing 0.25 netCG gate using truthful inputs, without changing the gate or listed anti-charter controls.
Written by the indexing model from the issue text.
Assessment
- Tech stack
- python
- Domain
- data-engineering
- Issue type
- Feature
- Difficulty
- 5/5
- Estimated time
- Over a week
- Activity status
- Quiet
- Clarity
- Needs clarification
- Newbie friendliness
- 35/100