PolicyEngine / PolicyEngine/microcosm
Dense-arm SSI take-up thresholds: the #508 one-retry protocol does not converge on the full pool
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Description
Build P2 dense attempts 2→3 (#507 receipts): with attempt 2's delivered-weight basis, attempt 3's bands moved 18–64 +5.8% → +8.2% (worse) and 65+ +24.8% → +20.0% (still 4× the ±5% envelope).
Mechanism: recomputing thresholds changes SSI recipiency, which shifts the ratio-bounded full-pool solve's equilibrium, so the delivered weights the thresholds were computed against are stale again by run's end. The sparse arm converges in one retry because the frozen 57,240-record support pins the equilibrium; the dense arm has no such anchor. The gate mechanically prescribes another basis retry each failure, but a second recomputation is the reconcile loop the #508 design forbids ('recomputed exactly once, no reconcile loop').
Design candidates (each needs adjudication, none is a knob):
- Sparse-anchored basis: compute dense thresholds from the certified sparse release's delivered bands (the two arms share the base and target system; the sparse equilibrium is the certified reference).
- Fixed-point argument: show the basis→equilibrium map is a contraction on the dense arm and bound the iteration count — would justify a principled multi-step protocol distinct from ad-hoc reconciliation.
- Dense-specific envelope: adjudicate whether ±5% is the right contract for the non-default diagnostic arm.
Blocks dense-P2 publication alongside the netCG structural gap (#487-class). Receipts: attempts 2/3 on #507.
Contributor guide
First steps
- Read the whole issue, then the project's contributing guide.
- Comment on the issue to say you are picking it up — it saves two people doing the same work.
- Fork the repository and make your change on a branch.
- Open a pull request that references the issue number.
Research direction
Start with the #507 receipts and the #508 one-retry protocol described in the issue. Compare the sparse-anchored basis, fixed-point argument, and dense-specific envelope against the ±5% gate and the dense-arm behavior. Done means one design is adjudicated and the dense-P2 publication block is resolved without an ad-hoc reconcile loop.
Written by the indexing model from the issue text.
Assessment
- Tech stack
- python
- Domain
- data
- Issue type
- Feature
- Difficulty
- 5/5
- Estimated time
- Over a week
- Activity status
- Quiet
- Clarity
- Needs clarification
- Newbie friendliness
- 25/100