PolicyEngine / PolicyEngine/chronicle
NZ source packages, wave 2: take-up and validation surface
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- Dominant language
- Python
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- Avg merge
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Description
Lane: ledger-source-ingestor — judges ledger-source-fidelity + ledger-boundary
Depends on: #176 (conventions established; the M1d shape proven before its HUD duplicate lands)
Context
The populace-nz product is a dollar take-up gap: full-entitlement modelled dollars vs dollars actually paid. Wave 1 carries the calibration margins; this wave carries the comparison and validation surface — the facts the take-up computation and the gates read but calibration must not bind. Several rows are provenance_class: model_output or assertion: source_projection; the populace-side assertion-policy story (allow_source_projection, diagnostic-only families) must be settled per package before it lands.
Candidate inventory
| Package | Artifact | Why wave 2 |
|---|---|---|
treasury/an24_01_fiscal_totals |
fiscal_totals.csv from the AN 24/01 companion repo (CC0) |
Program-level admin dollar totals (TY2018/19) as a validation cross-check — stale vintage, not a calibration margin |
treasury/distribution_explorer_hes24_befu25 |
DistributionExplorer DE_HES24_BEFU25_TY{25..29}_SQ.csv (MIT) |
The full-entitlement denominator, provenance_class: model_output — never calibrated to; diagnostic band only (NBB macro-realism precedent) |
hud/housing_dashboard_as_2026 |
Housing Dashboard data-download xlsx, AS tab | TLA-grain AS counts duplicating M1d — lands after the M1d shape is proven; 14 MB monthly workbook needs sheets: discipline |
msd/hardship_assistance_march_2026 |
Fact-sheet supplementary xlsx (grants and dollars) | Quarterly hardship $ — small program, not in the 16 margins |
ird/kiwisaver_statistics_2026 |
IRD KiwiSaver datasets xlsx | Members/contributions — relevant when KiwiSaver rules enter the composed surface |
msd/befu_2025_benefit_forecasts |
BEFU 2025 recipient forecasts | Forward periods, assertion: source_projection — needed only when populace targets years beyond observed vintages |
Acceptance
Same per-package provenance/guard/acceptance bar as #176; every model_output and source_projection row's intended populace-side treatment (diagnostic family, assertion policy) named in the PR description; no computed values.
Out of scope
Calibrating to any of these facts (populace-side gate design); local geography (#178).
Sizing
~6 packages ≈ 2–3 PRs (treasury batch, MSD/HUD batch, IRD).
Contributor guide
First steps
- Read the whole issue, then the project's contributing guide.
- Comment on the issue to say you are picking it up — it saves two people doing the same work.
- Fork the repository and make your change on a branch.
- Open a pull request that references the issue number.
Research direction
Read #176 first to learn the established conventions, then inspect the ledger-source-ingestor lane and the listed CSV/XLSX artifacts, including the required sheets discipline for the HUD workbook. Done means packaging the wave-2 sources with the same provenance, guard, and acceptance bar, naming diagnostic-family and assertion-policy treatment for model_output and source_projection rows, and adding no computed values.
Written by the indexing model from the issue text.
Assessment
- Tech stack
- python
- Domain
- data-engineering
- Issue type
- Feature
- Difficulty
- 4/5
- Estimated time
- 3-5 days
- Activity status
- Quiet
- Clarity
- Mostly clear
- Newbie friendliness
- 48/100