Metaculus / Metaculus/metaculus

Don't include bots in average updates count

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Simple
Dominant language
TypeScript
Stars
113
Forks
34
Avg merge
16h 34m
Merged PRs (30d)
30

Description

The following was caused by a single bot making ~2k forecasts where there were only 10 forecasters.
Image

Let's not include bot forecasts in the divisor unless there are no non-bot forecasts.

Contributor guide

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First steps

  1. Read the whole issue, then the project's contributing guide.
  2. Comment on the issue to say you are picking it up — it saves two people doing the same work.
  3. Fork the repository and make your change on a branch.
  4. Open a pull request that references the issue number.

Research direction

No file or test is named; start by searching for the average updates count and the forecast aggregation that computes its divisor. Reproduce the case with bot and non-bot forecasts, then verify that bots are excluded when non-bot forecasts exist and included only when they are the sole forecasts.

Written by the indexing model from the issue text.

Assessment

Tech stack
typescript
Domain
backend
Issue type
Bug
Difficulty
3/5
Estimated time
1-2 days
Activity status
Active
Clarity
Mostly clear
Newbie friendliness
62/100

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