Metaculus / Metaculus/metaculus

Update "Community Prediction" LeaderboardEntry meaning

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Dominant language
TypeScript
Stars
113
Forks
34
Avg merge
16h 34m
Merged PRs (30d)
30

Description

Currently, the "Community Prediction" gets a leaderboard entry which corresponds to the "recency_weighted" aggregation. This is true even for tournaments that exclusively use "unweighted" as the default aggregation.

This proposes to solve the issue by calculating the "Community Prediction" entry score by accumulating the scores of the default_aggregation_method by question. Sometimes this would be the recency_weighted aggregation, sometimes the unweighted one.

This would mean that we remove non "Community Prediction" entries from leaderboards.

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First steps

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  3. Fork the repository and make your change on a branch.
  4. Open a pull request that references the issue number.

Research direction

Locate the LeaderboardEntry implementation and references to default_aggregation_method, then trace how leaderboard scores are calculated for Community Prediction. Done means the entry uses each question's default aggregation method and non-Community Prediction entries are removed from leaderboards; add or update tests for both aggregation modes.

Written by the indexing model from the issue text.

Assessment

Tech stack
typescript
Domain
backend
Issue type
Bug
Difficulty
4/5
Estimated time
3-5 days
Activity status
Quiet
Clarity
Mostly clear
Newbie friendliness
55/100

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