Metaculus / Metaculus/metaculus

Time averaged forecasts in aggregation explorer

Open
#4,614 1 comment 0 reactions 0 assignees View on GitHub

Nobody has claimed this yet.

Stale
Dominant language
TypeScript
Stars
113
Forks
34
Avg merge
16h 34m
Merged PRs (30d)
30

Description

User mmmeta requests:

Quick idea: would be nice to be able to see ones time-averaged probability distribution on continuous question once a question is resolved. Especially with lots of updates it is sometimes hard to see why the score was bad/good. Also in comparison to the time averaged CP. (For binary questions this would just be the time-averaged prediction value, which is also nice and likely easier to implement, but surfaces less unseen information in my opinion.)

I think this can be executed by adding a few features the the aggregation explorer where we show a time-averaged view and similarly map the user's prediction (if logged in) in both the timeline and also the time-averaged view.
for binary questions, we'd show a time-averaged histogram. We might not be able to reasonably do this for MC questions, though.

Contributor guide

No contributing guide indexed for this repository

First steps

  1. Read the whole issue, then the project's contributing guide.
  2. Comment on the issue to say you are picking it up — it saves two people doing the same work.
  3. Fork the repository and make your change on a branch.
  4. Open a pull request that references the issue number.

Research direction

Start at the aggregation explorer entry point and review how the timeline displays forecasts and user predictions. Define the time-averaged view for continuous and binary questions, including the logged-in user's prediction, and determine how multiple-choice questions should be handled. Done means the explorer shows the requested averaged information alongside the existing timeline.

Written by the indexing model from the issue text.

Assessment

Tech stack
typescript
Domain
analytics, frontend
Issue type
Feature
Difficulty
4/5
Estimated time
3-5 days
Activity status
Quiet
Clarity
Mostly clear
Newbie friendliness
48/100

Get new issues in your inbox

A short digest of beginner-friendly GitHub issues.