Metaculus / Metaculus/metaculus
Time averaged forecasts in aggregation explorer
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- Dominant language
- TypeScript
- Stars
- 113
- Forks
- 34
- Avg merge
- 16h 34m
- Merged PRs (30d)
- 30
Description
User mmmeta requests:
Quick idea: would be nice to be able to see ones time-averaged probability distribution on continuous question once a question is resolved. Especially with lots of updates it is sometimes hard to see why the score was bad/good. Also in comparison to the time averaged CP. (For binary questions this would just be the time-averaged prediction value, which is also nice and likely easier to implement, but surfaces less unseen information in my opinion.)
I think this can be executed by adding a few features the the aggregation explorer where we show a time-averaged view and similarly map the user's prediction (if logged in) in both the timeline and also the time-averaged view.
for binary questions, we'd show a time-averaged histogram. We might not be able to reasonably do this for MC questions, though.
Contributor guide
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First steps
- Read the whole issue, then the project's contributing guide.
- Comment on the issue to say you are picking it up — it saves two people doing the same work.
- Fork the repository and make your change on a branch.
- Open a pull request that references the issue number.
Research direction
Start at the aggregation explorer entry point and review how the timeline displays forecasts and user predictions. Define the time-averaged view for continuous and binary questions, including the logged-in user's prediction, and determine how multiple-choice questions should be handled. Done means the explorer shows the requested averaged information alongside the existing timeline.
Written by the indexing model from the issue text.
Assessment
- Tech stack
- typescript
- Domain
- analytics, frontend
- Issue type
- Feature
- Difficulty
- 4/5
- Estimated time
- 3-5 days
- Activity status
- Quiet
- Clarity
- Mostly clear
- Newbie friendliness
- 48/100