Metaculus / Metaculus/metaculus

after a question is resolved, don't show default forecast

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Dominant language
TypeScript
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113
Forks
34
Avg merge
16h 34m
Merged PRs (30d)
30

Description

Ben:

When forecasting is disabled (e.g. for a logged in bot) or a question is resolved, could we remove the "My Prediction" distribution and keep only the "My Prediction (previous)"? Many bot makers going in to see their forecast get confused since there are 2 distribution, one of which is meaningless. And now that bots can't forecast via UI they can't move the distribution if they want to screenshot for example. I've gotten 5+ requests for clarification in the past, and I'm guessing many others who just didn't say anything.
example

Image

Luke:

This is caused when the latest forecast doesn't have anything in the distribution input field. It thinks that the user used the API previously and now wants to use the UI. And so by default it displays the current prediction which is defined by the slider positions, even though now the sliders are hidden because the question is closed.
It should be a reasonably easy fix, and I think I agree with you.

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First steps

  1. Read the whole issue, then the project's contributing guide.
  2. Comment on the issue to say you are picking it up — it saves two people doing the same work.
  3. Fork the repository and make your change on a branch.
  4. Open a pull request that references the issue number.

Research direction

Start by reproducing the forecast view for a resolved question and for a user whose latest forecast has no distribution input. Find the display logic for the "My Prediction" and "My Prediction (previous)" distributions, then verify that only the previous distribution remains when forecasting is unavailable or the question is resolved.

Written by the indexing model from the issue text.

Assessment

Tech stack
typescript
Domain
frontend
Issue type
Bug
Difficulty
2/5
Estimated time
1-3 hours
Activity status
Quiet
Clarity
Mostly clear
Newbie friendliness
64/100

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