Metaculus / Metaculus/metaculus
Tournament leaderboards should report attainable coverage
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@lsabor is already working on this.
Since Nov 5, 2025.
Medium Priority
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- Dominant language
- TypeScript
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- 113
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- 34
- Avg merge
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- Merged PRs (30d)
- 30
Description
I.e. the coverage column should be sum(coverage) / sum(attainable_coverage) over all questions, including the ones you didn't forecast (where your coverage is 0).
Where attainable_coverage = (effective_close_time - open_time) / (scheduled_closed_time - open_time).
The "My score" section also needs some extra info to explain things:
- the "Coverage" column becomes "Coverage (max)", where each row shows your coverage, and the maximum attainable coverage in parantheses: "58% (84%)".
- the totals at the bottom have both:
- "total coverage" =
avg(coverage) - "total attainable coverage" =
avg(attainable_coverage) - "effective coverage" =
sum(coverage) / sum(attainable_coverage), i.e. should be the same as the value in the leaderboard.
- "total coverage" =
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