Metaculus / Metaculus/metaculus
early closed questions cause false prediction withdrawal reports
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- Dominant language
- TypeScript
- Stars
- 113
- Forks
- 34
- Avg merge
- 16h 34m
- Merged PRs (30d)
- 30
Description
For instance, user 117502 (RyanBeck) shows (falsely) that his prediction was withdrawn for question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/
If you look at the data, his final prediction happened after the question's "actual_close_time":
second to last prediction (start, end): 2022-02-24 02:24:48.365567+00:00 2022-02-24 03:34:14.621749+00:00
last prediction (start, end): 2022-02-24 03:34:14.621749+00:00 None
question actual_close_time = datetime(2022, 2, 24, 2, 49, tzinfo=datetime.timezone.utc)
So clearly the UI is reporting something that it shouldn't be...
Contributor guide
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First steps
- Read the whole issue, then the project's contributing guide.
- Comment on the issue to say you are picking it up — it saves two people doing the same work.
- Fork the repository and make your change on a branch.
- Open a pull request that references the issue number.
Research direction
No file or test is named. Reproduce the report for question 8898 and user 117502, then trace how the UI decides a prediction was withdrawn when the final prediction starts after actual_close_time. Done means the displayed report no longer marks this prediction as withdrawn and the behavior is covered by a regression test.
Written by the indexing model from the issue text.
Assessment
- Tech stack
- typescript
- Domain
- frontend
- Issue type
- Bug
- Difficulty
- 3/5
- Estimated time
- 1-2 days
- Activity status
- Stale
- Clarity
- Needs clarification
- Newbie friendliness
- 35/100