Merge Protections stuck "under evaluation" on every merge-queue draft + ~25 min event lag (regression of #5177)

Repository: Alpine-Anchor/horizon-app — follow-up to #5177 (closed 2026-08-27 as fixed). The same shape is back, and the queue has merged nothing since 2026-09-14 20:01Z (2h20m+ at time of filing).

1. Mergify Merge Protections stays "under evaluation" on every merge-queue draft

Our queue conditions are derived from ruleset Main, which requires Mergify Merge Protections (as the setup guide recommends). On every draft created since ~20:10Z the check has stayed in_progress — "Your merge protections are under evaluation / Be patient, this will be updated soon."

The drafts just before this resolved it within seconds Corrected: those timestamps were a reset started_at. Measured from draft creation, #7701 took 65 min and #7706 took 62 min, and draft latency grew all afternoon. See the latency table in the comment below. Regular PRs resolved in minutes (e.g. #7721 20:23→20:31).

GET /v1/repos/Alpine-Anchor/horizon-app/merge-queue/pull/7710 at 22:05Z: every GitHub Actions condition satisfied; the only unmatched condition is check-{success,neutral,skipped} = @mergify/Mergify Merge Protections. checks_summary 11/12, ci_ended_at: null.

2. Check-run ingestion and event processing are lagging badly

• Before a refresh, Mergify's check list for draft #7719 contained only Supabase Preview=skipped (checks_summary 0/12), although GitHub had completed all 40+ GitHub Actions check-runs on it by 20:31:51Z.
• Regular PRs missed completions too and never entered the queue. Example: #7721 — Mergify's status comment last updated 20:32:04, missing test-integration-rollup (completed 20:33:56) and lint-typecheck (20:37:06). Same on #7689, #7690, #7709, #7727.
• @mergifyio refresh fixed the check view (thank you for the correction on #5177 — it does re-read), but the acknowledgement lagged: comment on #7708 at 21:25:52 → Pull request refreshed 21:48:54 (23 min); #7710 21:26:13 → 21:52:40 (26 min). #7710's batch went 0/12 → 11/12 at 21:54:29.
• Batch 1749facc… has checks_timeout_at: 2026-09-14T22:06:36Z; no action.queue.checks_end or dequeue had appeared in /logs by 22:24Z.

status.mergify.com and githubstatus.com both report operational. We have not changed .mergify.yml or ruleset Main (last modified 2026-09-10).

Questions

1. Can you unstick batches 1749facc…, d34d382b…, 2144e00d…?
2. Is this a regression of the two fixes from #5177 (early protections post, and the org-specific latency)?
3. Is it supported to drop Mergify Merge Protections from the ruleset's required checks while keeping Depends-On: enforced by the queue? If the check is not required, does the queue still honor Depends-On?

Start by reviewing the regression context in #5177, the merge-queue pull endpoint, and /logs for batches 1749facc…, d34d382b…, and 2144e00d…. Compare GitHub check-run completion times with Mergify ingestion and refresh acknowledgements, then inspect .mergify.yml and ruleset Main. Done means the affected batches progress normally and the support questions about required protections and Depends-On are answered.