IntersectMBO / IntersectMBO/ouroboros-consensus

Share our plausible theory for the asymmetry Karl noticed on pooltool.io battles

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Description

@karknu shared an unexpected observation on pooltool.io. A pool had a large number of concentrated "slot/height battles" (ie short forks) listed on pooltool.io, and moreover it won nearly all of them (eg 11/12).

Since the VRF tiebreaker is supposed to be "uniform", the lop-sided ratio is not what we were expecting. We chatted and came up with a plausible theory based on survivorship bias. It seems worthwhile to write this down, listing our assumptions and possible action items (eg calculating how many battles we _expect_ to see, etc).

cc @amesgen

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