[Bug]: Feeds in social media are notified of new post in unpublished blogs

### Quick summary

The site publishes the new posts in the linked social media account feeds, even when the blog is not public yet. The blog is in "coming soon" state.

### Steps to reproduce

1. Create a new blog in wordpress.com
2. In the dashboard, go to `Tools -> Marketing -> Connections`.
3. Connect with your Tumblr account.
4. Create a new post in the Wordpress site.
5. Check the Tumblr account feed.

### What you expected to happen

The new posts are not listed in the site as the site is not publish, and that should be the same with the feed in Tumblr. At the moment of publishing the post, if the site is not published, the publication shouldn't be notified to Tumblr.

### What actually happened

As you can see, even when the site is not reachable because it's not publish (it shows the "coming soon" message), the posts will be shown in the Tumblr feed.

### Browser

Mozilla Firefox

### Platform (Simple, Atomic, or both?)

Simple

### Reproducibility

Consistent

### Severity

Some (< 50%)

### Available workarounds?

No but the platform is still usable

Start by reproducing the issue on a Simple WordPress.com site using Tools -> Marketing -> Connections and a Tumblr account, then trace the publication path for a site in the “coming soon” state. Done means new posts from an unpublished site are not sent to the Tumblr feed, while the existing publishing behavior remains intact for a public site.

Written by the indexing model from the issue text.