AusClimateService / AusClimateService/indices

Differences in percentiles when using --base_period with a different study period?

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Python
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Description

When calculating percentiles, icclim can use the `base_period_time_range` parameter to set the reference period. If `base_period_time_range` is not defined, the `time_range` is used.
I originally calculated the percentiles over the 1985-2014 `time_range` without `base_period_time_range` however if I calculate percentiles over the 1979-2021 `time range` with a `base_period_time_range` of 1985-2014, there are some very small differences. This plot shows the R95p difference for Jan 1986 between the two
![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/34051150/224426801-85957993-ff1b-4b3a-90a2-f45dec37d8f8.png)

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding how `base_period_time_range` is applied, I thought that they should be the same within 1985-2014 as the reference period is the same?

I also tested it by recalculating the percentiles over the 1985-2014 `time_range` with a `base_period_time_range` of 1985-2014 and this gave the same result as when using the 1985-2014 `time_range` without `base_period_time_range`

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Research direction

Start by tracing how percentile calculations apply `base_period_time_range` and `time_range`, using the reported R95p result for January 1986 as the comparison case. Reproduce both configurations and determine whether identical reference periods produce identical percentiles; done means explaining or correcting the observed differences and verifying the result.

Written by the indexing model from the issue text.

Assessment

Tech stack
python
Domain
data
Issue type
Bug
Difficulty
4/5
Estimated time
3-5 days
Activity status
Stale
Clarity
Mostly clear
Newbie friendliness
35/100

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