AusClimateService / AusClimateService/indices
Differences in percentiles when using --base_period with a different study period?
- Dominant language
- Python
- Stars
- 6
- Forks
- 6
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Description
When calculating percentiles, icclim can use the `base_period_time_range` parameter to set the reference period. If `base_period_time_range` is not defined, the `time_range` is used.
I originally calculated the percentiles over the 1985-2014 `time_range` without `base_period_time_range` however if I calculate percentiles over the 1979-2021 `time range` with a `base_period_time_range` of 1985-2014, there are some very small differences. This plot shows the R95p difference for Jan 1986 between the two

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding how `base_period_time_range` is applied, I thought that they should be the same within 1985-2014 as the reference period is the same?
I also tested it by recalculating the percentiles over the 1985-2014 `time_range` with a `base_period_time_range` of 1985-2014 and this gave the same result as when using the 1985-2014 `time_range` without `base_period_time_range`
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Research direction
Start by tracing how percentile calculations apply `base_period_time_range` and `time_range`, using the reported R95p result for January 1986 as the comparison case. Reproduce both configurations and determine whether identical reference periods produce identical percentiles; done means explaining or correcting the observed differences and verifying the result.
Written by the indexing model from the issue text.
Assessment
- Tech stack
- python
- Domain
- data
- Issue type
- Bug
- Difficulty
- 4/5
- Estimated time
- 3-5 days
- Activity status
- Stale
- Clarity
- Mostly clear
- Newbie friendliness
- 35/100